What a difference four months, and some good campaigning, makes.
When
"Nightcrawler" and "Cake" premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back
in
September, the former movie seemed too dark and creepy and the latter
too small to figure in the Oscar race. But as PricewaterhouseCoopers
reps prepare to unveil this year's nominations to the Academy staff on
Wednesday night and to the entire world on Thursday morning, both of
those films have found themselves in the thick of the race, as two of
the unlikeliest potential success stories of this year.
Although I thought they were both near-prohibitive longshots only a few months ago, Jake Gyllenhaal of "Nightcrawler" and Jennifer Aniston
of "Cake" have both made my list of predicted nominees, and I expect to
see the former film in several other categories as well.
It's
a strange year, with an unusual best-picture frontrunner ("Boyhood")
that has rarely appeared to be comfortable as a frontrunner. Some races
seem relatively clear (Patricia Arquette and J.K. Simmons will likely
win supporting Oscars, while Best Actor will probably come down to Eddie
Redmayne v. Michael Keaton), but others are wide open and confusing.
With
that in mind, here are my best guesses as to what we'll hear on
Thursday morning in 11 of the key Oscar categories. (My predictions in
most other categories can be found at GoldDerby.com.)
BEST PICTURE
Since
mid November, the clear top five has been "Boyhood," "Birdman," "The
Imitation Game," "The Theory of Everything" and "Selma" - though the
rise of "The Grand Budapest Hotel" as the film most nominated by the
guilds, and the failure of the late-breaking "Selma" to honored by most
of them, has changed the picture somewhat.
Since
the Oscars expanded the best-picture slate in 2009, only "The Tree of
Life," "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" and "Amour" have made the
cut without a single nomination from the four major guilds (the DGA,
PGA, WGA and SAG). But I expect "Selma," which sent screeners to the
Academy but not the guilds, to become the fourth film to do so, in the
process finding a measure of redemption at the hands of Oscar voters.
After
that, it depends on how many nominees are produced by the Academy's
process, which could lead to as many as 10 nominees or as few as five.
Since the last three years have all had nine nominees, that's the
sensible choice again this year. But who gets the last three slots?
I
thought Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" was on the bubble until the
Directors Guild nominated him on Tuesday morning, but that recognition
is awfully persuasive. (Only one film in the last five years, "The Girl
With the Dragon Tattoo," failed to get a best-picture nomination after
getting a DGA one.)
For the
final two spots, I expect the preferential voting system, which rewards
films with a small, passionate following over milder consensus
favorites, to help "Whiplash" more than "Gone Girl" and "Unbroken." And
while "Foxcatcher" has a real shot at a nomination, I think the passion
vote will provide an unexpected surge for "Nightcrawler" - which may be
too dark and too creepy for the mainstream Academy, but might also be
too good to ignore.
Predictions (in order of likelihood):
"Boyhood"
"The Imitation Game"
"Birdman"
"The Theory of Everything"
"Selma"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"Whiplash"
"American Sniper"
"Nightcrawler"
BEST DIRECTOR
Conventional
wisdom would say that the directors of my top five would have the
inside track, which would mean Richard Linklater, Morten Tyldum,
Alejandro Inarritu, James Marsh and Ava DuVernay. But Tyldum and Marsh
are relatively unknown and could easily be replaced by more experienced
directors, while DuVernay may have been hurt by the controversy over
"Selma."
The DGA went for
Linklater, Inarritu, Tyldum, Wes Anderson and Clint Eastwood, but they
usually agree with the Academy on only four of the five. Maybe DuVernay
takes that fifth spot from Eastwood, buoyed by the way her movie speaks
to what's happening today, or maybe David Fincher for "Gone Girl" or
Damien Chazelle for "Whiplash" get in instead.
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Alejandro G. Inarritu, "Birdman"
Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"
Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Ava DuVernay, "Selma"
See video: 'Selma' Director Ava DuVernay 'Baffled' by LBJ Controversy (Video)
BEST ACTOR
One
of the most impressive feats of awards season was the way Jake
Gyllenhaal muscled his way into a category that seemed to be locked in
with Michael Keaton, Eddie Redmayne, David Oyelowo, Benedict Cumberbatch
and Steve Carell. His feral videographer in "Nightcrawler" is so
undeniable that he'll probably supplant one of those five, most likely
Carell for "Foxcatcher." (Though Cumberbatch could prove not to be a
lock, too.)
If there's an additional surprise here, look for Bradley Cooper for "American Sniper."
Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
David Oyelowo, "Selma"
Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
BEST ACTRESS
Another
impressive awards-season feat: How Jennifer Aniston came from nowhere
in "Cake," a tiny film that wasn't widely acclaimed, to make herself a
real contender in what is admittedly a thin Best Actress field. Her
biggest rival for a nomination is probably Golden Globe winner Amy Adams
in "Big Eyes," and I suspect this is a very close race between five-time nominee Adams and Oscar newcomer Aniston.
If enough Oscar voters saw "Two Days, One Night," Marion Cotillard could (and should) have been a contender, but not enough did.
Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"
Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
Also read: Good Girl Strikes Back: Amy Adams Has the Last Laugh
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Here's another thin
category. If one of the top five falls out - maybe Duvall, in a movie
that nobody was very enthusiastic about - the biggest contenders to take
his place are Tom Wilkinson from "Selma" and Miyavi from "Unbroken."
But the former was probably hurt by the controversy over the depiction
of his character, President Lyndon Johnson, and the latter never quite
seemed to register with voters. If there's a surprise, it could be Josh
Brolin for his hilarious role in "Inherent Vice."
J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
Edward Norton, "Birdman"
Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
Robert Duvall, "The Judge"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Another
"Nightcrawler" surprise could be lurking here, with Rene Russo in a
good position to swipe a nomination out from under perennial contender
Chastain, or maybe even Stone, Knightley or the eternal Oscar favorite
Streep.
Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
Emma Stone, "Birdman"
Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
Meryl Streep, "Into the Woods"
Jessica Chastain, "A Most Violent Year"
See video: Meryl Streep Defends Russell Crowe's Controversial Comments on Age in Hollywood (Video)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The
Academy's Writers Branch has a habit of recognizing smaller movies that
don't get much recognition elsewhere, but this year the smaller movies
are among the favorites. "Selma" has a real shot of being recognized.
"Boyhood"
"Birdman"
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"
"Nightcrawler"
"Foxcatcher"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"American
Sniper" is the strongest contender to supplant one of these five,
though it's not inconceivable that the stoners and Thomas Pynchon fans
in the Academy could get Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" into the
mix. "Unbroken" is a longshot in another top-heavy field.
"The Imitation Game"
"The Theory of Everything"
"Whiplash"
"Gone Girl"
"Wild"
Also read: Golden Globes Awards: TheWrap's Complete Coverage
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Academy
voters have a history of nominating one smaller film into this
category, which would bode well for the hand-drawn Irish film "Song of
the Sea" or the Japanese entry "The Tale of the Princess Kaguya." But
"The Book of Life" is a formidable contender as well - and remember,
these voters have made a number of off-the-wall choices in previous
years.
"The Lego Movie"
"Big Hero 6"
"How to Train Your Dragon 2"
"The Boxtrolls"
"Song of the Sea"
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
The
nine-film shortlist seems to have a clear top five: "Ida," "Leviathan,"
"Wild Tales," "Timbuktu" and "Force Majeure," and I'd be surprised if
most of them don't make it. But the committees that vote on the
shortlist have a habit of including at least one unexpected choice, and
the touching "Tangerines" or the austere "Corn Island" could be this
year's wild cards. If one of them gets in, "Force Majeure" could be the
likeliest of the Big Five to be pushed out.
"Ida"
"Leviathan"
"Wild Tales"
"Timbuktu"
"Force Majeure"
Also read: Oscars to Add Winning Foreign Language Director's Name on Statuette
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Laura
Poitras' "Citizenfour" is the prohibitive favorite and Steve James'
"Life Itself" seems all-but-certain to get the twice-snubbed James his
first nomination. Beyond that, though, most of the 13 other films on the
shortlist have a chance of making the final five, with "Virunga," "Last
Days in Vietnam," "Keep On Keepin' On," "The Case Against 8," "Finding
Vivian Maier," "Tales of the Grim Sleeper," "The Internet's Own Boy" and
"The Salt of the Earth" all strong candidates.
"Citizenfour"
"Life Itself"
"Virunga"
"Last Days in Vietnam"
"Finding Vivian Maier"
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